Retail's holding up, but the van out front just got more expensive than the business inside.

Good morning. Three things worth your five minutes. Retail sales rose 5.4% in April as consumer spending stayed resilient — petrol stations led, but the demand signal is broad^[2]. The next bad news is parked in your carpark: commercial-vehicle COE premiums are set to breach S$100,000, a rising fixed cost for anyone running delivery vans or a trade fleet^[8]. And roughly a third of Singapore's exports could face a new 12.5% US tariff — relevant if you make or move physical goods^[3]. Five minutes, then back to your week.

Sector pulse

Most SG official indicators publish monthly, with a multi-week lag. Where the freshest data is older than 14 days or simply absent, we say so plainly.

What actually mattered this week

1. Retail spending held up in April — up 5.4%

SingStat data shows retail sales rose 5.4% in April, extending an uptick as consumer spending stayed resilient amid the Middle East crisis; petrol stations led the growth^[2].

Aphyx interpretation One month doesn't make a trend, and petrol-led growth flatters the headline. But "spending didn't crack" is the useful takeaway for an SME owner deciding whether to hold or trim mid-year stock and roster. Hold, on this evidence — and watch the next monthly print.

2. Commercial-vehicle COE set to breach S$100,000

Commercial-vehicle COE premiums are likely to cross the S$100k mark in the coming bidding exercise, while mainstream car premiums remain elevated^[8].

Aphyx interpretation This is a direct hit to any delivery-, logistics- or trades-reliant SME. If a renewal lands in the next 12 months, the cost is now large enough to belong in your pricing conversation, not just your finance one. The quiet workaround some owners are weighing — outsource the last mile rather than own the fleet — gets more attractive at this premium, but that's a build-vs-buy call only your numbers can settle.

3. A US tariff salvo that could touch a third of SG exports

Roughly one-third of Singapore's exports could face a new 12.5% US tariff, framed around forced-labour concerns in global supply chains^[3].

Aphyx interpretation If you're a services-only SME, this is background noise. If you make, assemble, or re-export physical goods to the US — or supply someone who does — it's worth a line-item check of where your inputs originate and what a 12.5% wedge does to your landed cost. We're flagging exposure, not forecasting the final policy; the shape of these things changes weekly.

This week's calendar

Notable moves

• Hawker management consolidates. Kimly's Hawkermania will run One Punggol Hawker Centre once Timbre+ Hawkers' tenure ends^[6] — a signal on who's operating Singapore's managed hawker estates.
• More room for heritage hospitality. URA will relax restrictions on operating new hotels and hostels in heritage precincts at Boat Quay and Beach Road, previously curbed to avoid over-proliferation^[4]. Aphyx interpretation An opening for hospitality and F&B SMEs eyeing those areas — supply rules loosening usually precedes new tenancy activity.
• A new SME lending channel. Digital bank Anext is using AI-hardware financing to expand its SME lending^[7]. Worth a look if conventional financing has been tight for you — though terms and eligibility are the part the headline doesn't cover, so read past it before counting on it.

Worth your time

If you read one thing this week: MOM's Report on Wage Practices 2025^[1]. The press summary tells you real wages grew; the underlying report has the median and percentile wage tables by occupation and sector — which is the part you actually want open in a tab the next time you're setting a salary band or countering a counter-offer. Benchmarking beats guessing.

— Aphyx
Have a week.